By Kiley McDaniel
Following the quasi-news of the Boras clients’ demands, Saber-Scouting’s coverage of the draft, from the rumors and innuendo side of things, has now kicked into full gear. After conversations with a number of baseball people, we have a draft buzz update chock full of information.
Inside: The Rays narrow the list for the first pick, a heavy favorite for #1, a bunch of hot bats angling for the top 10, and a young Derek Jeter, all after the jump…
The Rays own the first pick in this draft this June and one source with knowledge of the Rays thinking noted that the club is intent on taking a position player with the first overall pick. Granted, it’s still early and things could very well change as the draft approaches, but the candidates under consideration are Georgia prep SS Tim Beckham, Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, and Georgia SS Gordon Beckham, with the latter Beckham being a clear third amongst these three.
That being said, if there’s a bat with some serious helium this spring, UGA’s offensive powerhouse Gordon Beckham is the man. (He’s the Beckham on the left in the graphic above, for those who are already confused.) He began the season with some momentum after a stellar showing in the Cape Cod League this summer, but has really shot up draft boards with a .427/.513/.855 line through 131 at-bats, with 15 HR, 10 for 11 in stolen bases, and 18 walks to 11 strikeouts. He’s gotten the token mention as longshot choice at #1 overall but his momentum, premium position, potentially quick-moving bat, and low-risk profile add up to the buzz that he could hit his way into the top 5.
Covering all of our Beckham bases, Tim Beckham (the one on the right in the graphic above) has emerged as the near-consensus top prospect thus far. Phrases like “franchise shortstop,” “Edgar Renteria, at least,” and “B.J. Upton, but in the infield” have been tossed around, and he seems like a perfect fit for the Rays with a glut of young pitching and corner talent.
As reported here earlier, Florida prep 1B Eric Hosmer’s agent Scott Boras is allegedly seeking a $7 million bonus, which would be a record bonus amount. At first glance, anything more than $3-$4 million seems completely ridiculous for any high school first baseman, but a few factors might make that lofty number seem more realistic.
Former-Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters received a $6 million bonus from Baltimore in last year’s draft and scouts are universal in taking Hosmer’s bat over Wieters’. Obviously, Wieters’ much-more-challenging defensive position and Hosmer’s not-so-challenging position factor in as well, but if a team believes in Hosmer’s bat, in the draft, Boras tends to get what he wants, or at least close to it. In that same vein, teams are seeing more and more elite draftees (usually over-slot types) making impacts quickly in the big leagues, which goes a long way to giving GMs and scouting directors more job security. Additionally, there are rumblings that the slotting system could get beaten like a red-headed stepchild in this draft as more teams join the big spenders in simply drafting the best player available. Paying Hosmer $7 million still seems on the high side, but paying him $5 million, for instance, considering these factors, doesn’t seem quite so crazy anymore.
Two more college bats making a serious move up draft boards are Florida State catcher Buster Posey and South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak. Posey has drawn some Jason Kendall (pre-gruesome ankle injury) comparisons and has also drawn a lot of interest from teams drafting from 5-10. Given that catchers always go a few spots earlier than they maybe should, Posey going in the top 10-12 choices seems like a safe bet. Smoak has gotten some mixed reviews, much of that being a function of a tough summer with wood bats for Team USA, and some being because scouts were watching him so much it was tough not to pick him apart. But now we’re in crosschecker season and Smoak is impressing the right people at the right time and getting some Mark Teixeira comparisons thrown his way. Some say he won’t get out of the top 5, others say the glut of first baseman could push him down as far as 10th. What is clear is that he’s getting hot at the right time, in front of the right people.
One last player doing all he can move up in the first round is Sarasota (FL) High SS Casey Kelly. Like Smoak, he’s been on watch lists for this draft for two years and also like Smoak, coming into the season scouts started knocking parts of his game almost because they saw him too much and had to think of something different to say after awhile. He’s gained some momentum this spring with his silky-smooth defense and his athletic 6′3 frame. There are no doubts he’ll stick at shortstop and some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now. (I saw him at the Sarasota Classic—scouting report on the way—and do not disagree). Along with a sound approach at the plate, a history of hitting versus good competition, and a dynamic personality, Kelly has endeared himself to scouts and drawn some Derek Jeter comparisons. Kelly also showed a low 90’s fastball and flashed a plus slider on the mound this weekend with multiple team executives in attendance. There are teams in the mid first-round showing heavy interest and with franchise shortstop upside and a scholarship to play QB at Tennessee in the fall, he may be a candidate for an out-of-the-box deal to teams like Detroit or the Yankees.
Check back Monday for part two of this draft buzz installment, with an irresponsible stab at how the first 10 picks may play out.
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Seeing Alverez drop past the #1 slot would be absolutely shocking… But I can’t say I wouldn’t enjoy seeing it
Wow Gordon all the way to #1?
I remember Keith Law saying something about he had a two part swing that would be picked apart in the pros. Any truth to that?
Good lord this site has taken off??? I sort of don’t feel so special now that everyone wants to learn everything??? I’m still gonna post the lyrics to a song every recruit should know
Knapsacks’ “Katherine the Grateful”
Well know that, I know this
That they’ll want control of you
And hope that but notice
But you know they never do
And there are better days waiting for everyone
Slow starts, cold hearts will always be cold
Well they’ll always be cold
Sat up, shut out
We know but you’re never told
You can be grateful
You can be strong
We are not wrong
No one can love you
Fathering unto
We are with you
Know that we wish there were circles in all
And hope that but notice
As you walk through hopeless halls
And there are better days waiting for everyone
But cheekbones, good homes
Won’t always be there
They won’t always be there
Set out to shut up
And you know that you want them to care
You can be grateful
You can be strong
We are not wrong
No one can love you
Fathering unto
We are with you
Come down it’s alright
A tower of luck
But you don’t know it yet
You can be grateful
You can be strong
We are not wrong
No one can love you
Fathering will undo
We are with you
Jason – great song, and great album…
So if Kelly is supposed to be all that scouts say he is, why are both Beckham’s ranked above him? I mean one of the Beckham’s will be coming out of HS also..
RE: Keith Law and Gordon Beckham
Beckham does have a unique and funky swing..but, don’t let Law’s opinion sway you too much. I have read him for over a year, and according to his reports, no player ever makes adjustments, gets better, and there are 4th, 5th starters and 4th OFs everywhere. Simply put, he finds the weaknesses on every player and focusing on them.
No mention of Yonder Alonso for the top spot?
Gordon Beckham is definitely playing like a 1st overall pick.
Tim Beckham was the best player at the Aflac game.
Hos is great, but what about Nieto and Belviso, his teammates? Maybe not for the top spot, but they dont seem to get much attention.
I have to agree anything more than $4M for a HS bat is too much. Unless it’s an Upton, then it’s probably going to be worth every penny.
beckham’s swing (gordon) does look a little funky to me too. i don’t think he’ll hit for the same type of power with wood, but i’m no expert.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Qqc3g873RRU
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Gordon looks like he has a bit of a hitch in his swing, though I like his leverage. I’m more concerned with his defense. Will he be able to stick at SS as a pro?
You know whats interesting is I’ve seen Hosmer’s swing and his looks very weird and not as pretty as I had heard about. He gets out on his front foot then swings with his arms.
Anyone else seen him?
Matty,
Kelly has some questions on his bat and ultimate power potential, given his thin frame. That said, the thin frame allows him to stay at shortstop. He might take a few years to be an impact type at the plate. T. Beckham is a BJ Upton type that can do anything and do it fast, and looks to have the skills to use those tools on the infield.
Jason,
Indeed we have. Couldn’t find someone as surprised as us.
Chase,
I would’ve said the same thing a few months ago, but Beckham has really come on and Alvarez is a Boras client coming off a power-sapping injury that plays on the corner…three strikes for the Rays.
Jeff,
Haven’t seen video of G. Beckham’s swing. Frankie has some Cape video I’ll take a look at soon. Remember, Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence had swings to funky to fulfill their potential too, they just kept hitting. I’ve heard so many people I respect jump on the G. Beckham bandwagon that I buy it until I have reason not too. He also hit very well in the Cape with wood against top competition. There’ve been some Jeff Kent comparisons on the bat.
EJ877,
Alonso is a college corner guy with scouts questioning if his power will play in games as it doesn’t yet. That’s not #1 overall potential, but top 10 is a better bet than not.
Nieto is getting some late 1st round buzz, haven’t heard so much about Belviso.
thinkblue1,
Some have questioned this, but with Kent comps on the bat, if he’s SS or 2B isn’t an issue with the up-the-middle bat that’s productive with wood and will be a quick-moving type. I don’t think anyone projects him to be a plus defender at short, so he’s a solid SS or good 2B, a coin flip depending on the team. But, you’re not betting on the defense if you take him. And a team like SF needs a 2B and SS, just any kind of dynamic hitter, and needs one fast. Could be a great landing spot for him.
Jeff,
Haven’t gotten a great look at Hosmer’s swing, so I’ll reserve judgment probably until the draft video comes out.
“Alonso is a college corner guy with scouts questioning if his power will play in games as it doesn’t yet.”
I don’t understand that… he hit 18 homers last year, slugging .705 with a ridiculous BB/K ratio.
Some question Alonso’s power, not all. Those college numbers figure very little into what scouts think of his power though. I, however, had the pleasure of seeing him live in the Cape with wood. I don’t see any issue with his power, I think it’s more than legit. Kiley is correct though….for whatever reason I’ve heard scouts question that part of his game. They don’t think he has no power but I think they just doubt him being a true masher. Me though…I disagree with them.
FP
[...] Year Draft Let’s use this thread to talk about the draft. Here is a good article that i found: Draft Buzz: Rays Narrow List For First Pick saber-scouting Who do you think the rays will take first overall?? __________________ I collect Andy [...]
Its …uh
Monday, right…?
Ha, thanks Chase, indeed it is. Had a technical problem, will have some articles up very shortly and the mock as soon as the tech problem is resolved. Sorry.