I’ve altered it to PTO%= ((AB*3)-SO)+(SO*3)/Pitches

Hence the reason I might be getting slightly different numbers than you.

Anyway, I really think the application for this is simple the ease of getting outs. How easily is a pitcher getting his outs with the lowest % of pitches going elsewhere. Article coming soon.

Josh Beckett PTO% = 36.2%
Eric Bedard PTO% = 33%
Chien-Ming Wang PTO% = 29.9%
Scott Kamir PTO% = 29.8%
Roy Halladay PTPO% = 27.7%

To put this in perspective here are each persons GS W IP PITT SO BB

Josh Beckett = GS: 34 IP: 200.7 PITT: 2692 SO:194 BB:40
Eric Bedard = GS: 28 IP: 182 PITT: 2939 SO: 221 BB: 57
Chien-Ming Wang = GS: 30 IP: 199.3 PITT: 2859 SO: 104 BB: 59
Scott Kazmir = GS: 34 IP: 206.7 PITT: 3604 SO: 239 BB: 89
Roy Halladay = GS: 31 IP: 225.3 PITT: 3323 SO: 139 BB: 48

To average some of those things out:

Josh Beckett averaged 5.9 innings per start. He averaged 4.5 pitches per out with a 36.2% PTO.

Eric Bedard averaged 6.5 innings per start. He averaged 5.38 pitches per out with a 33% PTO.

Chien-Ming Wang averaged 6.64 innings per start. He averaged 4.78 pitches per out with a 29.9% PTO.

Scott Kazmir averaged 6.07 innings per start. He averaged 5.8 pitches per out with a 29.8% PTO.

Roy Halladay averaged 7.26 innings per start. He averaged 4.9 pitches per out with a 27.7% PTO.

What I found most puzzling about these numbers is that Josh Beckett, although he picked up the most wins of any of these pitchers, through the fewest innings per start of any “ace” in the NL east. If you look at the gamelogs for Josh Beckett from 07′ he was very carefully watched by John Farrell and rarely touched 110 pitches in a start. This speaks volumes about his durability as a pitcher. The Red Sox were clearly afraid he would get injured, and babied him along through the season. It also speaks volumes about the Red Sox bullpen that they were able to preserve his wins when he didn’t average 6 innings per start with is one of the major qualifications of a quality start.

Roy Halladay by contrast through a lot more pitches, he also made 4 more starts and averaged over 7 innings a start even though only 27.7% of his pitches were made towards outs. This means Halladay was a much more durable and dependable starter than Josh Beckett 07′, which is surprising given Beckett’s reputation as the most dominant starter of 07′ (I’ve heard it said on ESPN I don’t know how many times).

What this also shows is the relationship between a groundball pitcher and strike out pitcher. Chien-Ming Wang averaged half an inning more than Scott Kazmir per start and a full pitch less per out than Scott Kazmir. While Chien-Ming Wang might not look as dazzling as Scott Kazmir when he goes about his business, and their PTO% is almost exactly the same, he is able to go deeper into games and throw less pitches in the process. He also walked 32 fewer hitters than Kazmir. All this leads to a faster, more exciting ball game for the players and the fans.

What this means for PTO% is that it is not a good indicator of pitching style and durability amongst those with comparable talent. What else it says about PTO% I’ll leave up to debate.

And, I really really think you are going to next the next article I post today. Let’s just say your comment is well timed, lol.

One thing I’ve completely decided that this DOES tell us is HOW pitcher’s get their outs. So, maybe it’s a style measurement.

It tells us the difference between a guy that needs to go into deep counts everytime and throw everything but the kitchen sink to get their positive outcome and guys that get easy first pitch outs or quick strikeouts.

A guy with 3-2 counts on every hitter would probably do horrendously in this formula. I think overall it probably shows “ease of outs”. Do you think that captures it a little better?

I’d definitely like to keep getting feedback on this in order to be better understand how to apply it.

As others have pointed out, it doesn’t describe a pitcher’s likely success or effectiveness, nor is it intended to.

It might show a pitcher’s ability to go deep into games but pitches/inning might be a better and even simpler stat for that.

One hypothesis I would interested to see tested is that PTO% might provide a more objective measure of a pitcher’s “stuff”. From a purely theoretical point of view PTO% seems to particularly measure how hard it is to put bat on ball.

How well does PTO% correlate with your rating of pitcher’s pitches?

1992 – 26.8%

2001 – 26.1%

2007 – 21.4%

Thoughts? Makes sense I suppose. He’s had to use more and more pitches to get guys out and go deeper into counts to make it happen. There’s a lot of things we can draw from this.

We know this already but Maddux is very smart and has made immense adjustments to his attack. (He isn’t going into these deeper counts accidentally)

I just found it interesting.